'In such a scenario, Iran could proclaim itself victor, rebuild, re-enforce its diminished regional proxies to further destabilise neighbouring nations and take control of the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.'
For weeks, the war skirted the edge of catastrophe without tipping over. Missiles flew, there was much destruction, commanders were assassinated, cities across the Gulf and even in Israel struggled to absorb the shock. But one line held: Energy infrastructure, the arteries of the global economy, remained largely untouched. That is no longer true. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'The next two to three weeks will not be decided in Washington.' 'They will be decided in Tehran, in whatever calculation Iran makes about the costs of continued resistance against the costs of appearing to have yielded.'
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
'There is no shortage of fuel whatsoever.' 'India is stock surplus as far as petrol and diesel are concerned.'
Both sides have now revealed a preference for escalation over strategic defeat, and each new provocation narrows the space for the next pause. The Touska seizure, Iran's refusal to negotiate under blockade, Israel's strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure -- all of these add up to an increasingly untenable situation. This makes the wild card -- Trump and his motormouth -- more consequential than ever, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
'What we have yet to see on either the US or the Iranian side is willingness to compromise on their ultimate demands and the flexibility to reach an agreement to end the war.
The delegations from the US and Iran head to Islamabad on Friday, carrying a ceasefire that is already fraying, a Strait that is technically open and practically closed, and a negotiating agenda that would challenge even parties actually negotiating in good faith, which these groups are not. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
Although extensive air attacks have been carried out to destroy most of Iran's defence capabilities, the latter's resilience and sustenance during the war clearly indicate that the US landing force would encounter severe resistance in the operation, explains Commodore Venugopal Vengalil (retd).
Indian carriers are grappling with severe operational disruptions after Iran launched missile strikes on the US military base in Qatar late Monday. This led to airspace closures for long hours in parts of West Asia. Iran, Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, and Kuwait shut down their skies following the attack, forcing airlines to cancel, divert, or delay flights through these vital corridors.
The pause gives the US time to breathe, to regroup, to move its expeditionary force into position without risk of interception along the way. It gives Iran nothing -- on the ground, attacks against its infrastructure continue apace. Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Israel has for more than two decades and several US presidencies worked to draw the United States into a full-scale war with Iran. Having finally achieved that, the last thing it wants is Trump declaring victory and going home, as he is prone to do. Ali Larijani was the figure most capable of handing Trump a negotiated exit with something to show for it. Without Larijani, the road to an exit gets considerably narrower. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The 'rescue' operation occurred within kilometres of Iran's underground tunnel complex at Isfahan, assessed by the IAEA and US intelligence as holding a substantial portion of the country's 60 per cent enriched uranium stockpile. Retired senior US military officers have highlighted that the mission's footprint -- hundreds of special operators, multiple heavy-lift aircraft deep inside Iran -- appears outsized for recovering a single airman. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
This weekend, Donald Trump has begun to say the quiet part out loud -- that he wants to take control of Iran's oil, a formulation more in line with his robber-baron style of international relations.
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
In 242 international appearances, Gambhir scored 10,324 runs at an average of 38.95, with 20 centuries and 63 fifties in 283 innings. He is amongst 14 Indians to have 10,000 international runs.
'Without ground troops the US will not be able to oust the Iranian Islamic regime. Political change does not happen just by using bombs or planes.'
'Despite the large number of missiles and drones we have already launched, we still possess reserves and missile cities whose doors have not yet been opened,' says Iran's Consul-General Saeid Reza Mosayeb Motlagh.
Iran is fighting a different war: Older, slower, and in some ways more dangerous. Iran doesn't need to shoot down an F/A-18. It only needs to make the Strait of Hormuz feel dangerous long enough for insurance markets, shipping companies, and oil futures traders to do the rest. Prem Panicker continues his must-read daily blog on the war in the Middle East.
The question is no longer whether the war will expand. It has. The next few days will tell us whether the war stabilises around Hormuz or whether the Strait itself becomes the trigger for a far larger rupture. What to watch for over the next 48 hours is simple: Any move by the US toward direct naval control of the Strait; any credible Iranian attempt to disrupt or mine shipping lanes and, critically, whether energy infrastructure in the Gulf continues to be targeted.If those lines are crossed in tandem, the war will no longer be containable within the region.
Mark Tully, the renowned journalist, author, and Indophile, has passed away at the age of 90. He spent a lifetime in India as a journalist, mingling with its people and telling their stories.
In a culture where children take up the profession of their father, her becoming a politician was seen as natural and acceptable.
The era where nations thrived through rigid alignments is giving way to an age where the connective State defines power. For India, that era has arrived, points out Dr Nishakant Ojha.
The new US national security strategy signals a retreat from global dominance while reaffirming continuity in India's role in Indo-Pacific security and Quad cooperation, points out former foreign secretary Shyam Saran.
'But that was not our aim. Our objective was already achieved.'
An inconclusive end to this war will pose high risk for Netanyahu of a cascading demand for a regime change in Israel, predicts Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
The upcoming Durand Cup may have only six Indian Super League (ISL) teams in the fray, down from 12 last season.
If they act now, they can reshape the strategic map of Asia without firing a shot. If they wait, the next opportunity will come only after a serious Taiwan Strait incident -- by which time the price will be far higher, and the room for boldness far smaller -- the opportunity may well be lost by then. The question is no longer whether this can or should be done, points out Varun Arya.
When the technology gap between China and India will remain large, cost-effective hardware of the kind that proved their worth in Operation Sindoor should be our priority, points out R Jagannathan.
What appeared to be a generous act of friendship was, in truth, a manoeuvre within a much larger strategic game. The United States used the 1962 war not just to aid India but to test how far it could be pulled into the Western fold, points out Dr Kumar.
'The US slump could hit our hosiery market hard since 40 per cent of our exports go there.' 'Job losses could be severe if the government doesn't step in fast.'
Nearly 100 government heads and business leaders from the Middle East region attended the five-day summit, participating in panel discussions on topics as wide-ranging as Sovereign Wealth Fund management to sustainable development.
Global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, Christopher Wood, has cut his exposure to Indian equities by one percentage point in the Asia-Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio, and Australia and Malaysia by half a percentage point each in favour of China, which has seen a hike in exposure by two percentage points. The rally in China has been fast-forwarded by the approach of a seven-day holiday with the CSI 300 Index up 8.5 per cent on Monday, and 25.1 per cent in five trading days, he said.
At least four people were killed and 516 others were injured on Saturday in a massive explosion and fire at the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas, more than 1,000km south of capital Tehran, according to officials and state media, Al Jazeera reported.
The textile and apparel sector is India's second-largest employment provider, after agriculture, and it is now caught in a wave of uncertainty following the Donald Trump administration's tariff policy.
As India and China continue to face off across the Himalayas six decades later, the echoes of that earlier conflict remain unmistakable. The core of China's sensitivity lies not in maps or mountain passes, but in its perception of sovereignty over Tibet, points out Dr Kumar.
'These efforts by Beijing can be weaponised one day with economic, security and political implications for India.'
Israel's aerial assault on Iran is widely viewed as an act of naked aggression with no basis in international law, carried out unilaterally despite US opposition and aimed at derailing ongoing US-Iran nuclear negotiations, observes Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.
Trump is confident the US will eventually emerge the winner from whatever turmoil his policies cause, notes T T Ram Mohan.
Flights from Delhi or Bengaluru, while they may still fly over Iran, depending on the route, have alternative paths that may take them through Central Asia or northern routes.
